Geopolitical Realities & Human Possibilities
Our interpretation of geopolitical constraints creates new possible realities.
There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what geopolitics is and is not within the public mind. To many, it is just a fancy way of referring to current events. But geopolitics, at its core, is much more than current events. It is a framework for identifying and comprehending the constraints that shape humanity.
At the heart of geopolitics is the importance of geography. To the geopolitical forecaster, geography is the one constant, immutable element that remains fixed across the ages. The Swiss Alps were as much a barrier to invasion for Hannibal trying to reach Rome as it was for the allies trying to cross from Italy into Germany during WWII. The majestic Amazon River transfixed the imagination of early Portuguese explorers just as it transfixes our imagination today. Some things don't change.
Geopolitics tries to understand, describe, and forecast politics among nations. Yet, achieving this objective requires knowledge of both complex domestic systems and the subsequent aggregation of these same systems globally. These systems include demographic outlooks, political dynamics, economic projections, technological developments, environmental sustainability, and military power. The geopolitical forecaster must be an interdisciplinary thinker.
There are, however, pitfalls to geopolitical forecasting. The most common mistake made by geopolitical forecasters is the neglect of the human element. Many forecasters rely solely upon analyses of mega-trends. Some even go so far as to actively discount the ability of individuals to drive history. A cursory glance of American history reveals such a view to be utterly ridiculous.
Would America have won the Revolutionary War without George Washington as its lead general? How would American history have unfolded differently if James Monroe and David Livingston had not gone beyond their initial diplomatic mandate by signing the Louisiana Purchase? Would America have survived the Civil War if Abraham Lincoln was not President? How would Reconstruction been different if Lincoln had not been assassinated?
These are just a few examples of how individuals in the right place at the right time can change history. At the end of the day, the actions of people do shape history. Geopolitical forecasters who rely on impersonal forces such geography and demography but don’t account for the human element describe a future so deterministic that it might as well be predestined.
This brings us to the tension between geopolitical forecasting and the vagrancies of the human existence.
There’s a young man I follow on Twitter who goes by the pseudonym of Cole Summers. Cole’s 14, homeschooled, and has a passion for solving water scarcity problems in the American West. He died tragically in a kayaking accident.
While I didn’t know Cole beyond sporadic interactions on Twitter, I was always struck by his sharp mind and conviction. I had no doubt he would do great things. And so I find myself impacted by Cole’s death. I not only mourn on behalf of his family and friends, I also mourn the loss of his potential.
There is a divine spark contained within the human soul that makes human existence so surprising and so beautiful. Within every human life resides incredible potential, but not all possibilities are virtuous. It is impossible to separate humanity’s creative and destructive impulses. The human heart contains both innocence and instinct. A man is capable of both beauty and rage.
A human life contains possibilities within possibilities that are impossible to predict. Yet, if geopolitical forecasting taken to its extreme results in secular prophesies, then an overemphasis on human activity results in delusional thinking. After all, if anything is possible then nothing can ever be predicted. Any rational person knows this is not the case.
In our everyday lives, we routinely assign probabilities to the occurrence of particular events. From weather forecasts to the result of sporting events to the outcome of elections, probabilistic forecasting is all around us. But as anyone who ever put together a March Madness bracket has learned, improbable upsets are inevitable.
So how then do we strike that balance between geopolitical constraints and human possibilities?
If all the world's a stage and all the men and women are merely players, then history itself is but one giant play. Geopolitical constraints are the backdrop and props that form the stage. It provides the context for the play. Every person has a role in this play. Some are leading stars while some are merely extras in the background, but all pour their heart and soul into the role that they are given.
Nevertheless, a stunning backdrop and ensemble cast isn't enough for award-winning play: there must also be a compelling narrative. The narrative of history is formed by our ideas. What’s more, the ideas and beliefs that we hold today fundamentally shape our understandings and interpretations of the past. If that seems a bit too uncomfortably relativistic, then consider the following.
The human mind is surprisingly malleable. There are multiple studies in which individuals have confessed to crimes which were completely fictional. Vivid memories can turn out to be completely fake. Even traumatic experiences, such as the loss of a loved one, can take on different meanings over time. The actual event is unchanged, yet our interpretation of that event can shift dramatically as the years pass. Sometimes what matters is not what happened but our interpretation of what happened.
This is by no means an endorsement of relativism. There is, of course, such a thing of absolute truth. Instead, this is a warning that ideas have consequences. Our ideas, our dreams, our visions have the ability to reshape reality. There is power in our ideas. Thus, what is needed is a framework to understand these complex interactions between geopolitical realities, human activities, and our ideas.
Let's go back to the idea of history is theater but now consider improv instead of a scripted play. The same elements exist. We have the backdrop of geopolitical realities. There is the cast of all of humanity. Yet, instead of ideas serving as the narrative, ideas are the mood that fuels the actors on stage. Ideas are the spirit of the age.
As the improv progresses, there are breaks in the action where the backdrop shifts which consequently shifts the mood. Conversely, shifts in the backdrop can also be the result of the shifts in the overall mood of the actors.
This is what history looks like: geopolitical realities create constraints to human activity, but it is what we believe about these realities and how we react that drives our future actions. In turn, the aggregate of all of these actions fundamentally shifts the geopolitical landscape.
We now find ourselves where we began: what is geopolitics? Geopolitics is merely a framework. It is a tool for helping us understand the world around us. Yet, we must never forget that this tool is, in itself, an idea. What is a forecast but an idea that is formed by the mind of one human and communicated to another? The idea may be well-researched, but it is still an idea.
A proper view of geopolitical forecasting requires an understanding that compelling ideas can sometime reshape reality and create new possible futures. Yes, there are forces outside of anyone's control that are driving history, but there is still meaning and significance to our actions. We do have the ability to shape the future, but only within limited parameters.
This is but one of the many paradoxes of human existence.